News
The Cal State Companies:
Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal
State Properties ¨
Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Just Released 2nd Quarter 2019
Leading Rental Income Markets
LOS ANGELES , CA .
The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released
their second quarter 2019 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150
income rental markets with “buy, sell or hold” recommendations. This
publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and
when to invest in rental income properties.
The current number of markets in the
“Sell Phase” is fifty-one, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of
CRES. The number of markets in the “Buy
Phase” is fourteen. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy
recommendations are Lancaster , PA ,
Bridgeport , CT
and Springfield , MA . The three top sell recommendations are Fresno,
CA, Orlando, FL and Phoenix, AZ.” according to Mr. Vollucci.
In this edition of our Market
Cycles, we find the National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2019 were
7.0 percent for rental housing and 1.4 percent for homeowner housing. The
rental vacancy rate of 7.0 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the
first quarter 2018, but 0.4 percentage points higher than the rate in the
fourth quarter 2018. The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.4 percent was 0.1
percentage point lower than the rate in the first quarter 2018, but not
statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018. The
homeownership rate of 64.2 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the
first quarter 2018, but 0.6 percentage points lower than the rate in the fourth
quarter 2018.
The first quarter 2019 rental vacancy rate was highest
outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas and lowest in the suburbs. The rental
vacancy rate outside MSAs was higher than the first quarter 2018 rate, while rates
in principal cities and in the suburbs were not statistically different from
the first quarter 2018 rates. The homeowner vacancy rates outside MSAs were
higher than the rate in the suburbs. Occupancy was 96.0% in May, the highest rate since 2001. Among
the nation’s 50 largest local apartment markets, only one – Milwaukee – lost ground in occupancy
month-over-month. The other 49 large markets gained occupancy from April to May
2019.
Unemployment rates were lower in May in 6 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia , the U.S. Bureau
Of Labor Statistics reported today. Five states had jobless rate
decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 44 states
and DC had little or no change. The national unemployment
rate remained at 3.6 percent in May and was little changed from May
2018. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in Washington in May 2019 and was essentially unchanged in 49 states and the District of Columbia . Over the year, 24 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 26 states and
DC was essentially unchanged.
As reported by Marcus & Millichap
in their 2019 National Apartment Outlook, the new tax law is having a
substantive impact on rental demand as several tax benefits of homeownership
have been altered. These changes will weigh on first-time homebuyers in
high-tax states the most, keeping young adults in the rental pool longer.
Elevated completions in 2019 will bring the total apartment additions since
2012 above 2.1 million units, a net inventory gain of approximately 13 percent
over eight years. Vacancies is forecast
to remain at just 4.6 percent in 2019. With rising labor and materials costs,
tighter lending, and a shortage of skilled construction labor available, the
pace of construction should begin to ebb in 2020.
According
to CBRE’s 2019 Multifamily Outlook Report, multifamily completions will remain
high in 2019, but construction starts will finally fall, promising greater
market balance in 2020. Secular and cyclical trends are positioned to remain
highly favorable for multifamily demand, causing robust net absorption next
year. Nevertheless, vacancies will inch up and rent growth will be under its
long-term average. The multifamily sector will continue to attract high levels
of investment and debt capital, and workforce housing will remain an appealing
investment strategy given its favorable supply/demand balance.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci, is considered to be one of the foremost
authorities on real estate taxation and real estate investing and has authored
books in these fields published by John Wiley & Sons of New York. He is the
Director of the Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research
organization. To learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit
our web site at http://www.calstatecompanies.com
UTUBE:
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