The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Leading Residential Income Markets
3rd Quarter 2020
The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is thirty-one, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, President of calstatecompanies. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is eleven. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Chattanooga, TN, Detroit, MI and Worchester, MA. The three top sell recommendations are Modesto, CA, San Antonio, TX and New Haven, CT. The other markets are currently in a hold phase.”
In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find the National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2020 were 5.7 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 5.7 percent was 1.1 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2019 (6.8 percent) and 0.9 percentage point lower than the rate in the first quarter 2020 (6.6 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2019 (1.3 percent) and 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2020 (1.1 percent).
Unemployment rates were higher in August than a year earlier in 387 of the 389 metropolitan areas and lower in 2 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 37 areas had jobless rates of less than 5.0 percent and 6 areas had rates of at least 15.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 254 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 135 areas. The national unemployment rate in August was 8.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.8 percent a year earlier.
The second quarter 2020 rental vacancy rate was higher outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (8.2 percent) than the rate in the suburbs (5.3 percent) and the rate in principal cities (5.6 percent). The rental vacancy rate in principal cities was not statistically different from the rate in the suburbs. The rental vacancy rates inside principal cities and in the suburbs were lower than second quarter 2019, while the rate outside MSAs was not statistically different from the second quarter 2019 rates.
With the uncertainty of the upcoming election we have put many of our buy/sell recommendations in Market Cycles on hold. Calstatecompanies publication Market Cycles will keep you informed as the real estate investment market changes. Our quarterly newsletter gives a clear, concise analysis of over 175 different markets across the country, and makes timely recommendations on WHERE and WHEN to buy or sell in Pockets of Opportunity. To purchase Market Cycles go to http://www.calstatecompanies.com
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci, is considered to be one of the foremost authorities on real estate taxation and investing and has authored books in these fields published by John Wiley & Sons of New York. He is the Director of the Center for RE Studies, a real estate research organization. To learn more about the Center, please visit our web site at http://www.calstatecompanies.com