News
The Cal State Companies:
Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal
State Properties ¨
Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Just Released 3rd Quarter 2019
Leading Rental Income Markets
LOS ANGELES, CA.
The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released
their third quarter 2019 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150
income rental markets with “buy, sell or hold” recommendations. This
publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and
when to invest in rental income properties.
The current number of markets in the
“Sell Phase” is forty-eight, according
to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES.
The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is eighteen. Mr. Vollucci
states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Milwaukee,
WI, West Palm Beach,
FL and Youngstown,
PA. The three top sell
recommendations are New York, NY,
Eugene, OR and Raleigh, NC.” according
to Mr. Vollucci.
In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find the national
vacancy rates in the second quarter 2019 were 6.8 percent for rental housing
and 1.3 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.8 percent
was virtually unchanged from the rate in the second quarter 2018 and not
statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2019 . The homeowner
vacancy rate of 1.3 percent was 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate in
the second quarter 2018, but not statistically different from the rate in the
first quarter 2019.
Approximately 87.8 percent of the
housing units in the United
States in the second quarter 2019 were
occupied and 12.2 percent were vacant. Owner-occupied housing units made up
56.3 percent of total housing units, while renter-occupied units made up 31.5
percent of the inventory in the second quarter 2019.
Unemployment rates were lower in August in 5 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Five states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 2 states had increases, and 43 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.7 percent, was unchanged over the month and little changed from August 2018.
Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 5 states in August 2019, decreased in 1 state, and was essentially unchanged in 44 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 26 states added non-farm payroll jobs and 24 states and the District were essentially unchanged. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in five states in August 2019. The largest job gains occurred in California (+34,500), Florida (+22,500), and Georgia (+20,800). The largest percentage gains occurred in Kansas (+0.6 percent), Georgia (+0.5 percent), and Arizona (+0.4 percent). Employment decreased in August in Oklahoma (-0.5 percent).
Twenty-six states had over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment in August. The largest job gains occurred in California (+314,200), Texas (+303,500), and Florida (+221,200). The largest
percentage gains occurred in Nevada (+3.0 percent), Utah (+2.8 percent), and Washington (+2.6 percent).
National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2019 were 6.8 percent for rental housing and 1.3 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.8 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the second quarter 2018 and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2019 (7.0 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.3 percent was 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2018, but not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2019. The homeownership rate of 64.1 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2018 nor from the rate in the first quarter 2019.
The enduring strength of the apartment market was the main
takeaway of the National Multifamily Housing Council’s Quarterly
Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for July 2019, as the Market Tightness (60), Equity Financing (56), and
Debt Financing (80) indexes all came in above the breakeven level (50). The
Sales Volume Index (48) indicated a continued softness in property sales,
albeit with considerable disagreement among respondents.
"These latest figures illustrate that, in spite of
construction levels hovering near recent highs, there remains significant
pent-up demand for apartments," noted NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky.
"Nearly a third (32 percent) of respondents reported stronger rents and
occupancy levels, while just 11 percent indicated looser market
conditions."
While the industry outlook is
positive, political and regulatory threats like rent control threaten to upend
regional markets. Among respondents to the NMHC Quarterly Survey, sixty-two
percent operate in jurisdictions that have either recently imposed rent control
or are seriously considering doing so. Of this group, a fifth (20 percent) has
already cut back on investment or development in these markets, while an
additional 60 percent is considering making changes in the future.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci, is considered to be one of the foremost
authorities on real estate taxation and investing and has authored books in these
fields published by John Wiley & Sons of New York. He is the Director of
the Center for RE Studies, a real estate research organization. To learn more
about the Center, please visit our web site at http://www.calstatecompanies.com